Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River

Pakistan experiences extreme flood events almost every year during the monsoon season. Recently, have become more disastrous as their frequency and magnitude increased due to climate change. This situation is further worsened limited capacity of existing water reservoirs ability absorb mitigate peak floods. Thus, simulation stream flows using projected data from models essential assess proper resource management in country. study investigates future floods (in near far periods) integrated analysis system (IFAS) model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 change scenarios. Downscaled bias corrected climatic six general circulation ensemble were used this study. The IFAS simulated flow efficiently (R2 = 0.86–0.93 Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.72–0.92) Jhelum River basin (JRB), Kabul (KRB), upper Indus (UIRB) calibration validation periods. results showed significant impact on that will cause mean monthly JRB be lower, while KRB UIRB higher than historical period. highest months are expected shift May–June (Jhelum basin) June–July (Kabul April–May with no changes UIRB. Higher frequencies low medium UIRB, expects fewer events. Based model, it concluded area increase several